Research Publications
Stuart, J. O., Windschitl, P. D., Bossard, E., Bruchmann, K., Smith, A. R., Rose, J. P., & Suls, J. (in press). Which measures of perceived vulnerability predict protective intentions—and when? Journal of Behavioral Medicine.
McDonnell, S. M., Basir, M. A., Yan, K., Liegl, M. N., & Windschitl, P. D. (2023) Effect of presenting survival information as text or pictograph during periviable birth counseling: A randomized, controlled trial. Journal of Pediatrics, 257, 113382.
Windschitl, P. D., Miller, J. E., Park, I., Rule, S., Clary, A., & Smith, A. R. (2022) The desirability bias in predictions under aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. Cognition, 229, 105254.
Miller, J. E., Park, I., Smith, A. R., & Windschitl, P. D. (2021). Do people prescribe optimism, overoptimism, or neither? Psychological Science, 32(10), 1605–1616.
Li, S., Miller, J. E., Stuart, J. O., Jules, S. J., Scherer, A. M., Smith, A. R., & Windschitl, P. D. (2021). The effects of tool comparisons when estimating the likelihood of task success. Judgment and Decision Making, 16, 165-200.
Park, I., Windschitl, P. D., Smith, A. R., Rule, S., Scherer, A. M., & Stuart, J. O. (2021). Context dependency in risky decision making: Is there a description-experience gap? PloS one, 16(2), e0245969.
Miller, J. E., Windschitl, P. D., Treat, T. A., & Scherer, A. M. (2020). Comparisons as predictors of people’s beliefs about the importance of changing their health behaviors. European Journal of Health Psychology, 27, 14–29.
Smith, A, R., Windschitl, P. D., Rose, J. P. (2020) An integrated approach to biases in referent-specific judgments. Thinking and Reasoning, 26, 581-614.
Kaufman A. R., Twesten J.E., Suls J.M., McCaul K.D., Ostroff J.S., Ferrer R.A., Brewer N.T., Cameron L.D., Halpern-Felsher B., Hay J.L., Park E.R., Peters E., Strong D.R., Waters E.A., Weinstein N.D., Windschitl P.D., Klein W.M.P. (2020). Measuring cigarette smoking risk perceptions. Nicotine and Tobacco Research, 22, 1937-1945.
Witry, M. J., St. Marie, B. J., Viyyuri, B. R., & Windschitl, P. D. (2020). Factors influencing judgments to consult prescription monitoring programs: A factorial survey experiment. Pain Management Nursing, 21(1), 48-56.
Miller, J. E., Windschitl, P. D., Treat, T. A., & Scherer, A. M. (2019). Unhealthy and unaware? Misjudging social comparative standing for health-relevant behavior. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 85, Article 103873.
Gold, J. M., Stuart, J. O., Thiem, K. C., Field, R. W., Fernandez-Baca, J., and Windschitl, P. D. (2018). The unintended impact of smoking-risk information on concerns about radon: A randomized controlled trial. Health Psychology, 37, 1123-1133.
Windschitl, P. D., Smith, A. R., Scherer, A. M., & Suls, J. (2017). Risk it? Direct and collateral impacts of peers' verbal expressions about hazard likelihoods. Thinking & Reasoning, 23, 259-291.
Stuart, J. O., Windschitl, P. D., Smith, A. R., & Scherer, A. M. (2017). Behaving optimistically: How the (un)desirability of an outcome can bias people's preparations for it. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 30, 54-69.
Scherer, A. M., Bruchman, K., Windschitl, P. D., Rose, J. P., Smith A. R., Koestner, B., Snetselaar, L., & Suls, J. (2016). Sources of bias in people’s social-comparative estimates of food consumption. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied, 22, 173-183.
Windschitl, P. D., & Stuart, J. O. (2015). Optimism Biases: Type and Causes. In Gideon Keren & George Wu (Eds.) Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making. Blackwell Publishing.
Smith, A. R., & Windschitl, P. D. (2015). Resisting anchoring effects: The roles of metric and mapping knowledge. Memory and Cognition, 43, 1071-1084.
Scherer, A. M., Windschitl, P. D., & Graham, J. (2015). An ideological house of mirrors: Political stereotypes as exaggerations of motivated social cognition differences. Social Psychology and Personality Science, 6, 201-209.
Suls, J., Rose, J. P., Windschitl, P. D., & Smith, A. R. (2013). Optimism following a tornado disaster. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 39, 691-702.
Windschitl, P. D., Bruchmann, K., Scherer, A. M., & McEvoy, S. D. (2013). Egocentrism in judging the effectiveness of treatments. Basic and Applied Social Psychology, 35, 325-333.
Windschitl, P. D., Scherer, A. M., Smith, A. R., & Rose, J. P. (2013). Why so confident? The influence of outcome desirability on selective exposure and likelihood judgment. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 120, 73–86.
Smith, A. R., Windschitl, P. D., & Bruchman, K. (2013). Knowledge matters: Anchoring effects are moderated by knowledge level. European Journal of Social Psychology, 43, 97–108.
Scherer, A. M., Windschitl, P. D., & Smith A., R. (2013). Hope to be right: Biased information seeking following arbitrary and informed predictions. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 49, 106–112.
Bruchmann, K., Suls, J., Lee, S., Rose, J., Krizan, Z., & Windschitl, P. D. (2013) Searching for the limits and explanations of the non-selective superiority bias. Social Psychological and Personality Science. 4, 124-130.
Scherer, A. M., Windschitl, P. D., O’Rourke, J., & Smith A. R. (2012). Hoping for more: The influence of outcome desirability on information seeking and predictions about relative quantities. Cognition, 125, 113-117.
Caplan, D. J., Vela, K. C., Trope, M., Walton, R. E., & Windschitl, P. D. (2012). Patient Preferences Regarding 1-Visit Versus 2-Visit Endodontic Treatment. Journal of Endodontics, 38, 1322-1325.
Rose, J. P., Windschitl, P. D., & Smith, A. R. (2012). Debiasing egocentrism and optimism biases in repeated competitions. Judgment & Decision Making, 7, 761- 767.
Zikmund-Fisher, B. J., Windschitl, P. D., Exe, N., and Ubel, P. A. (2011) “I’ll do what they did": Social norm information and cancer treatment decisions. Patient Education and Counseling, 85, 225-229.
Smith, A. R., & Windschitl, P. D. (2011). Biased calculations: Numeric anchors influence answers to math equations. Judgment and Decision Making, 6, 139-146.
Rose, J. P., Suls, J., and Windschitl, P. D. (2011). When and why people are comparatively optimistic about future health risks: The role of direct and indirect comparison measures Psychology, Health & Medicine, 16, 475-483.
Rose, J. P., Windschitl, P. D., & Jenson, M. E. (2011). The joint influence of consensus information and situational information on trait inferences for targets and populations. Social Cognition, 29, 147-165.
Windschitl, P. D., Smith, A. R., Rose, J. P., & Krizan, Z. (2010). The desirability bias in predictions: Going optimistic without leaving realism. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 111, 33-47. PDF
Krizan, Z., & Windschitl, P. D. (2009). Wishful thinking about the future: Does desire bias optimism? Social and Personality Psychology Compass, 3, 227-243. PDF
Chambers, J. R., & Windschitl, P. D. (2009). Evaluating one performance among others: The influence of rank and degree of exposure to comparison referents. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 35, 776-792. PDF
Windschitl, P. D., Rose, J. P., Stalkfleet, M., & Smith, A. R. (2008). Are people excessive or judicious in their egocentrism? A modeling approach to understanding bias and accuracy in people's optimism. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 95, 252-273. PDF
Rose, J.P., Endo, Y., Windschitl, P.D., Suls, J. (2008). Cultural differences in unrealistic optimism and pessimism: The role of egocentrism and direct vs. indirect comparison measures. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 34, 1236-1248. PDF
Chambers, J. R., Epley, N., Savitsky, K., Windschitl, P. D. (2008). Knowing too much: Using private knowledge to predict how one is viewed by others. Psychological Science, 19, 542-548. PDF
Hofmann, W., & Windschitl, P. D. (2008). Judging a group from sampling members: How the subdivision of a minority affects its perceived size and influence. Journal of Social Psychology, 148, 91-104. PDF
Kruger, J., Windschitl, P. D., Burrus, J., Fessel, F., & Chambers, J. R. (2008). On the rational side of egocentrism in social comparisons. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 44, 220-232. PDF
Rose, J. P. & Windschitl, P. D. (2008). How egocentrism and optimism change in response to feedback in repeated competitions. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 105, 201-220. PDF
Windschitl, P. D., Conybeare, D., & Krizan, Z. (2008). Direct-comparison judgments: When and why above- and below-average effects reverse. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 137, 182-200. PDF
Krizan, Z., & Windschitl, P. D. (2007). The influence of outcome desirability on optimism. Psychological Bulletin, 133, 95-121. PDF
Krizan, Z., & Windschitl, P. D. (2007). Team allegiance can lead to both optimistic and pessimistic predictions. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 43, 327-333. PDF
Windschitl, P. D., & Krizan, Z. (2005). Contingent approaches to making likelihood judgments about polychotomous cases: The influence of task factors. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 18, 281-303. PDF
Chambers, J. R., & Windschitl, P. D. (2004). Biases in social comparative judgments: The role of nonmotivated factors in above-average and comparative-optimism effects. Psychological Bulletin, 130, 813-838. PDF
Windschitl, P. D., & Chambers, J. R. (2004). The dud-alternative effect in likelihood judgment. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 30, 198-215. PDF
Windschitl, P. D., Kruger, J., & Simms, E. N. (2003). The influence of egocentrism and focalism on people's optimism in competitions: When what affects us equally affects me more. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 85, 389-408. PDF
Chambers, J. R., Windschitl, P. D., & Suls, J. (2003). Egocentrism, event frequency, and comparative optimism: When what happens frequently is "more likely to happen to me." Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 29, 1343-1356. PDF
Flugstad, A., & Windschitl, P. D. (2003). The influence of reasons on interpretations of probability forecasts. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 16, 107-126. PDF
Windschitl, P. D., Young, M. E., & Jenson, M. E. (2002). Likelihood judgment based on previously observed outcomes: The alternative outcomes effect in a learning paradigm. Memory and Cognition, 30, 469-477. PDF
Windschitl, P. D., Martin, R., & Flugstad, A. R. (2002). Context and the interpretation of likelihood information: The role of intergroup comparisons on perceived vulnerability. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 82, 742-755. PDF
Windschitl, P. D. (2002). Judging the accuracy of a likelihood judgment: The case of smoking risk. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 15, 19-35. PDF
Windschitl, P. D., & Young, M. E. (2001). The influence of alternative outcomes on gut-level perceptions of certainty. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 85, 109-134. PDF
Windschitl, P. D. (2000). The binary additivity of subjective probability does not indicate the binary complementarity of perceived certainty. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 195-225. PDF
Windschitl, P. D., & Weber, E. U. (1999). The interpretation of "likely" depends on the context, but "70%" is 70%--right?: The influence of associative processes on perceived certainty. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 25, 1514-1533. PDF
Wells, G. L., & Windschitl, P. D. (1999). Stimulus sampling and social psychological experimentation. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 25, 1115-1125. PDF
Windschitl, P. D., & Wells, G. L. (1998). The alternative-outcomes effect. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 75, 1411-1423. PDF
Windschitl, P. D., & Wells, G. L. (1997). Behavioral consensus information affects people's inferences about population traits. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 23, 148-156.
Windschitl, P. D., & Wells, G. L. (1996). Measuring psychological uncertainty: Verbal versus numeric methods. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied, 2, 343-364. PDF
Windschitl, P. D. (1996). Memory for faces: Evidence of retrieval-based impairment. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 22, 1101-1122. PDF
Windschitl, P. D., & Wells, G. L. (1996). Base rates do not constrain non-probability judgments. Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 19, 40-41.
Seelau, E. P., Seelau, S. M., Wells, G. L., & Windschitl, P. D. (1995). Counterfactual constraints. In N. Roese & J. Olson (Eds.), What might have been: The social psychology of counterfactual thinking. (pp. 57-79). Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum.
Wells, G. L., Luus, C. A. E., & Windschitl, P. D. (1994). Maximizing the utility of eyewitness identification evidence. Current Directions in Psychological Science, 3, 194-197.
Belli, R. F., Windschitl, P. D., McCarthy, T. T., & Winfrey, S. E. (1992). Detecting memory impairment with a modified test procedure: Manipulating retention interval with centrally presented event items. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, & Cognition, 18, 356-367.